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Tighter labour market in last 3 months of this year: Survey

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Poll shows Singapore employers are worried over trade dispute and uncertainties

Job seekers should expect a tighter labour market in the last three months of this year, as hiring prospects are down from both the current quarter as well as a year ago, based on survey results from a recruitment firm.

The net employment outlook of +4 per cent is the weakest reported in two years, as trade conflicts and uncertainties weigh on business confidence, said ManpowerGroup Singapore in a statement today.

The firm polled 669 Singapore employers on their hiring plans for the upcoming quarter and found that 8 per cent plan to decrease headcount, while 13 per cent plan to increase it.

Of the rest, 77 per cent expect to maintain their payrolls, while 2 per cent said they do not know.

Net employment outlook is calculated by subtracting the share of employers planning to decrease headcount from the share of those planning to increase it, and then accounting for seasonal variations.

The fourth-quarter figure is below the +11 per cent outlook that employers had stated for the current third quarter, as well as the +12 per cent outlook for the fourth quarter of last year.

ManpowerGroup Singapore country manager Linda Teo said business confidence here has been dampened by global and regional trade conflicts, as well as warnings of a possible recession.

"Anticipating that business will be affected by the economic downturn, companies are limiting their hiring activity. Some companies are also turning to upskilling their employees instead of hiring new staff," she said.

Positive workforce gains are expected in the next quarter for five of the seven sectors covered in the survey; led by the public administration and education sector, where the outlook is +19 per cent.

But, compared with the final quarter of last year, the outlook was softer in all seven sectors.

For example, it declined by 17 percentage points in public administration and education, 12 percentage points in manufacturing and transportation and utilities, and 10 percentage points in services.

Large employers with at least 250 staff seem likely to be the worst affected, with an outlook of -3 per cent reported.

On the other hand, medium employers - those with 50 to 249 staff - had the strongest hiring intentions with an outlook of +9 per cent, more so than small (+4 per cent) and micro (+1 per cent) businesses.

Mr Kurt Wee, president of the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (SME), said smaller firms tend to be quite lean, and thus less elastic in hiring and firing than larger firms.

"... If the negative situation persists in the next one to two quarters, I wouldn't be surprised if SMEs start retrenching," he said.