Record numbers make Malaysia’s election a tough call
KUALA LUMPUR - Two weeks of intense campaigning which saw much political rhetoric as well as numerous election pledges and survey results being rolled out have muddied the waters in Malaysia’s general election, making Saturday the most unpredictable polling day in the country’s history.
Pundits have dubbed the 15th general election a “festival of democracy” featuring the highest number of voters, candidates and potential prime ministers ever in the battle for control of the federal legislature.
Aside from party leaders projecting a show of confidence that they have majority support – despite their own war rooms taking more pragmatic views – no major observer is picking an outright winner that can take 112 of the 222 Parliament seats on offer.
The most likely result after polling on Saturday is Malaysia’s first ever hung Parliament in its 65-year history, a startling outcome given that it was only in 2008 that a functioning two-party democracy started to take root.
Since then, clashes of political ideologies and personalities have created three main national coalitions – Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – as well as a dominant regional force in Sarawak, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).
Hence, it is nearly certain no single bloc will be able to claim the support of the majority of Malaysia’s 21 million voters. The ground has been difficult to read with rallies failing to draw the tens of thousands seen in past editions.
As is usually the case, the opposition rallies have seen the larger crowds, with a few thousand braving the rain at the finale of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim’s nationwide tour in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.
But much of the campaign is being fought online instead, where narratives are not just being forged and dissected on news portals and established social media such as Facebook and Twitter, but also new platforms like TikTok, where PN’s 75-year-old chief Muhyiddin Yassin’s dance moves have gone viral.
The digital shift is partly due to the lowering of the voting age to 18 from 21, tilting the balance of how political information is disseminated.
Most opinion polls have opposition leader Anwar’s PH in the lead, but still short of a simple majority of MPs. However, these surveys come with a caveat that a sizeable portion of the electorate – from a fifth to a third of them – were undecided heading into the final days of the campaign.
In all probability, Malaysians will wake up on Sunday with no elected leader and a greater sense of uncertainty than on the day after the 2018 election, when Umno’s six-decade rule came to an end following its shock defeat to PH.
Adding to the anxiety is the fact that only 221 contests will be decided on Saturday, after Padang Serai’s incumbent MP Karupaiya Mutusamy died suddenly this week, forcing a redo for the seat in Kedah.
Despite some surveys suggesting the Umno-led BN may even finish last of the three main pacts, several foreign analysts predict it will still return to power at the helm of a grand alliance.
“EIU expects Ismail Sabri Yaakob to be reappointed prime minister. However, his ability to serve a full five-year term is far from assured,” said Economist Intelligence Unit’s principal Asia economist Fung Siu, referring to the Umno vice-president.
She warned that “if charges against the president” Zahid Hamidi are dropped, his ruling Umno would likely force Datuk Seri Ismail to hand over the reins. A verdict in Zahid’s graft trial is expected early next year.
Even if a new prime minister is installed soon after the election, this is unlikely to mark the end of Malaysia’s political instability.
Since February 2020, the country has seen two governments toppled due to party defections and shifting loyalties, and Umno reclaiming the premiership just three years after it was vanquished at the polls.
Meanwhile, six states controlled by PH and PN will hold their state polls by the middle of next year, after deciding not to hold them concurrently with Saturday’s general election. This means nearly half of Malaysia will head to the ballot box again by the middle of 2023 to elect new state assemblymen.
Unless a coalition emerges this Saturday with a strong, unassailable mandate, Malaysians will be in for more choppy political waters ahead.
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