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Rule Of Thumb should be third-time lucky

Monday’s South Africa (Kenilworth) form analysis

RACE 1 (1,000M)

(1) ALPINE CHALLENGE bumped a progressive and older hat-trick scorer when third over this trip last time. He should feature prominently if reproducing that form reverting to two-year-old company. 

(2) LE MANS has improved with every start. He should make his presence felt if making further improvement trying this shorter trip. 

(3) DISTINCTION arrives in good form. She is getting weight from her, so is likely to pose a threat. 

(4) PALO QUEEN is promising and has shown enough to warrant respect.

(5) PORQUE TE VAS will appreciate a return to this trip.


RACE 2 (1,000M)

(5) RAFEEF’S CHOICE found support on debut and ran with promise by finishing fourth over 1,200m, despite showing signs of her inexperience. With the benefit of that experience, she appeals the most. 

(1) DRACMA and (6) SILVER SCREEN are capable of making their presence felt on the back of improved efforts. 

The other threats are the well-bred newcomers (3) GIMME’S LASSIE and (7) SOPHIA RAIE. Watch the betting on the duo.


RACE 3 (1,400M)

(5) FUR BABY made the expected improvement on her second start, a sales race behind a promising sort. On pedigree, she should improve further going over this trip. 

(1) TIME FLIES made an encouraging debut over a shorter trip. She should improve for both that experience and the extra 400m. 

(8) TEARDROP improved after a break in her second start over this distance. She will be competitive, having tightened up. 

(2) TOUCH OF GRACE and (3) ST KITTS could also show more, trying this trip.

Watch the betting on newcomers (6) FUTURE LEGEND and (7) ROYAL INVITATION.


RACE 4 (1,400M)

(9) RULE OF THUMB built on the promise of his debut third when second the next start. He can go one better if making further improvement over this trip. 

(8) ROYAL PORT LOUIS ran on late to finish on the heels of the re-opposing (2) MASTERFUL GUY when a close third over this trip last time. He should improve to reverse that form. 

(5) LAST STORM was second in the Eastern Cape last time and should also make his presence felt with further improvement. 

(7) MATSUYAMO ran well against winners in his last start and should fare better back in maiden company. 

(1) STATE OF SHOCK has claims.


RACE 5 (1,600M)

(1) MILLAHUE won at this level with cheekpieces last time. He should go well again, despite a three-point rise. The gear is retained. 

(2) NIGHT RULER is 1kg better off with Millahue for a 11/2-length difference, so should pose a threat.

(5) QUE SHIRAZ, too, is weighted to turn the tables on 1.5kg better terms. 

(4) AENEAS was a runaway winner of his maiden over 1,900m. He has shown enough over this trip with blinkers to make his presence felt again. 

(7) CAPTIVE MOON was slightly disappointing over a shorter trip last time but will enjoy the extra 200m.


RACE 6 (1,200M)

The progressive (5) DEAN STREET was impressive in backing up his maiden victory with a win on handicap debut, albeit at a lower level, over a shorter trip. He will be more at home over this trip and could complete the hat-trick. 

(3) ALL ABOUT AL is consistent at this level and will pose a threat in his peak outing off the same mark. 

(1) HIS CHOICE would have tightened up following a pleasing comeback run in stronger company.

(2) BARNEY MCGREW is closely matched and will likely to give another honest account.


RACE 7 (1,200M)

(1) NIPPY WINTER does not know how to run a bad race. She should acquit herself competitively once more. 

(5) APOLLO MOON caught the eye when running on to finish second behind Nippy Winter and is 1kg better off. 

(2) FEARLESS TRIP and (3) LITTLE MISS PINK should go well again and play a role in the outcome. 

Last-start maiden winner (4) DEMELZA could have a say with improved fitness.


RACE 8 (1,100M)

(5) ON THE ROAD AGAIN was slightly disappointing when well supported last time. He could make amends. 

(1) BLUFF ON BLUFF and (6) RAGNAR LOTHBROK are closely matched with On The Road Again and should not be far behind.

(10) WORDSWORTH is holding form and should be competitive once more in his peak outing. 

(4) BALTIMORE JACK is inconsistent but is capable on his day.