Oct 27 Hong Kong (Happy Valley) form analysis

Race 1 (1,200m)

3 Country Dancer has been catching the eye in his trials leading up to his first run for the season. This will also mark his first try in Class 5, where he will be partnered by Zac Purton, and the pair have drawn nicely low in barrier 3.

1 The Khan would prefer 1,400m, but he should have more to come after breaking his duck last start. A bit of a class edge on this field holds him in good stead.

5 Spicy So Smart gets barrier 1, which will provide him a decent run throughout.

10 Cheer For South has been disappointing, but he could finally get the race run to suit and may be one to finish in the money at a price.

 

Race 2 (1,800m)

1 Noble Pursuit, for in-form duo Caspar Fownes and Hugh Bowman, was a dominant winner first-up over 1,650m and remains unbeaten second-up. From barrier 3, he will take a lot of beating in a contest that does not look harder.

4 Fortune Superstar should be primed to give his best effort third-up in Hong Kong, having turned in a strong trial between runs.

9 Winning Steps rises to Class 3 for the first time after an extraordinary last-start win, but given his inconsistency throughout his career, a query over whether he can reproduce that effort remains.

3 Romantic Laos is better than his recent form suggests, having had valid excuses in his last two starts, and with even luck, he is more than capable of bouncing back.

 

Race 3 (1,650m)

2 Capital Legend will be suited by the rise in distance on his second run in Class 4. If he manages to map a touch closer, he will give himself a good chance to bounce back to winning ways.

7 Sturdy Ruby has had 16 races to win, but despite looking the winner many times, he just cannot get his nose in front when it matters. Still, his honesty carries him in good stead, especially with barrier 1 in his favour.

5 Brave Witness had no luck first-up, racing wide without cover. He is better than that run and deserves a chance to atone.

10 Courier Magic has turned in two decent runs this preparation, but he has a wide draw to navigate.

 

Race 4 (1,200m)

9 Speed Sword has been dropping down the ratings and now finds himself in Mark Newnham’s care after transferring from Frankie Lor. He showed marked improvement in a recent trial and now draws barrier 3, which should allow him to secure an ideal run.

1 Denfield is ready to land another win after his eye-catching second first-up. He had to drop back from a wide draw and finished strongly under Bowman.

6 Lucky Planet should be on pace throughout from barrier No. 1. His chances, however, will hinge on how much early pressure he faces.

3 Lakeshore Hero is an interesting newcomer for the David Hall stable, having trialled well on multiple occasions. He should be competitive in what looks to be a winnable contest.

 

Race 5 (1,200m)

11 Sky Prophet is one of the unluckiest horses with barrier draws in Hong Kong, but gate helps. He keeps running on strongly from the back. He is ready to win if he can settle closer to the pace.

8 Smart Fighter is still a maiden after 14 starts but has been knocking on the door this prep with a couple of promising placings. An inside alley will ensure no excuses.

2 The Perfect Match showed some ability last season and returns to racing after trialling well in blinkers.

9 Tactical Command has been ultra-consistent for the Newnham stable, and it is hard to see him running a bad race.

 

Race 6 (1,800m)

1 Volcanic Spark’s first-up run was better than it reads, as he drew wide and was barely put into the race competitively. He drops back into Class 4, and earlier intent will bring out the best in him.

11 Me Time jumped favourite first-up and performed well, finishing just a length behind in fourth at this course and distance. He is improving with racing and getting close to a win.

7 Charity Gain ran a strong first-up race for his new stable, David Eustace, and looks ready to progress further.

8 Happy Hero is thriving in his racing since transferring to Newnham’s stable. That last-start win marked his first victory in Class 4, and he did it in style.

 

Race 7 (1,000m)

2 Ma Comet looks primed for a win after a string of second-placed finishes. He had plenty to do from a wide draw last start but still ran a solid race and has trialled impressively in between runs.

4 Grand Nova closed his season with his first win, defeating Ma Comet. More to offer this term.

8 Sight Happy has been disappointing of late but can be forgiven, and could show improvement.

 

Race 8 (1,200m)

8 Romantic Son has been trialling well for the David Hayes stable with Purton aboard. In what is not the strongest race, he looks set to run a solid race on debut from the ideal draw in barrier 1.

1 Reward Smile has endured tough luck in both runs this preparation, held up in the straight each time after jumping from wide draws. He is ready to break through for a win with any luck, though he once again has to navigate a wide gate.

10 Righteous Arion needs to step up on his Class 3 form but is seldom far from the finish and could sneak into the placings in this field.

9 Lucky Combination, another debutant, has shown promise in trials and should get a sweet run from his low draw.

 

Race 9 (1,000m)

2 Youthful Spirits pulled up as a roarer after his first-up failure. He has since been freshened and won a trial impressively, suggesting he can bounce back to form.

10 Horsepower makes his debut for Frankie Lor, having caught the eye in multiple barrier trials, and looks a promising type.

6 Eternal Fortune showed notable improvement on his second local start last time, and another step forward would not surprise.

7 Healthy Healthy was a costly failure last start but should offer longer odds. It would be folly to overlook him in this field.

 

Race 10 (1,200m)

5 Lucky Encounter is second-up and should prove a major threat after his strong first-up effort -hen running on late into

ixth behind Wunderbar. The fitness gained from that run and a more favourable draw this time suggest he is primed to go close.

1 Copartner Prance returns to his preferred track and distance. While he has been consistent without winning this season, the drop in grade and a low draw should bring him right into contention.

6 Gorgeous Win continues to perform with credit and looks well placed again after a solid third last start to Wunderbar. His consistency makes him a strong player.

7 Raging Blizzard returns after a break and makes his Class 2 debut. Although untested at this level, he could improve further.

Comments courtesy of The Hong Kong Jockey Club