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Brokers' take

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MAY 16 CLOSE: $0.55

Phillip Securities Research, May 16

First-quarter 2017 revenue and Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) were within our estimates.

But several non-cash items negatively affected headline earnings, namely forex and derivative loss.

We are lowering our earnings by 18 per cent to incorporate these non-cash items.

No change to our cash-flow assumptions or target price. Dividend guidance of 6.5 cents annually (paid 1.625 cents per quarter) has been maintained.



MAY 16 CLOSE: $0.37

OCBC Investment Research, May 16

Golden Agri-Resources reported its Q1 2017 results on Monday evening, with revenue up 37 per cent year on year to US$2.05 billion (S$2.86 million), meeting 27 per cent of our full-year forecast, as this was driven by the plantation segment.

Reported profit after tax and minority interest (Patmi) was 60 per cent lower at US$37.6 million, forming 18 per cent of our FY17 forecast estimate.

Nonetheless, core Patmi grew 70 per cent to US$83.6 million, as the key difference was due to a forex loss this quarter versus a gain in Q1 2016.

Looking ahead, management is keeping its expectations for FY17 production to a 15 per cent to 20 per cent growth along with largely steady prices at current levels.

Given the current lack of weather extremities plus signs of weak global palm oil demand, OCBC Treasury Research remains bearish on palm oil and expects price of RM2,650 (S$857) a tonne at year-end.



MAY 16 CLOSE: S$0.785

UOB Kay Hian, May 16

Bumitama Agri's Q1 2017 results were weaker than expected mainly due to front-loaded fertiliser costs (56 per cent of full-year application).

But we maintain our 2017 earnings forecast as we expect lower fertiliser costs in the upcoming quarters and a strong H2 2017 on higher production.

Meanwhile, Q2 2017 production could be higher quarter on quarter as fresh fruit bunches (FFB) yield recovers and due to Kalimantan's seasonal patterns.

We maintain our FFB production growth forecast of 18 per cent year on year for this year. Maintain "buy".

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