HDB resale prices up 9.7% in 2024, more growth expected

Prices of Housing Board resale flats climbed 9.7 per cent in 2024, with analysts expecting resale prices to continue to rise in 2025.

Price growth in 2024 outpaced the 4.9 per cent increase recorded in 2023.

But price growth in the last three months of 2024 slowed – rising 2.6 per cent, lower than the 2.7 per cent growth in the preceding quarter, according to data released by HDB on Jan 24.

Fewer resale flats were sold in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the number falling by 21.1 per cent to 6,424 units, from 8,142 units in the third quarter.

In all, 28,986 resale flats changed hands in 2024 – 8.4 per cent higher than the 26,735 flats in 2023.

Resale prices have risen continuously on a quarterly basis since the second quarter of 2020.

Property analysts expect resale prices to continue to rise in 2025, as fewer new flats meet their minimum occupation period (MOP) compared with the year before.

Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc, said that an estimated 6,974 flats will meet its MOP in 2025, and the tighter supply will contribute to rising prices.

The number is down 41.6 per cent from the 11,952 flats that met their MOP in 2024, he noted.

“This moderation can be attributed to the lower number of flats completed in 2020, as the completion timelines were significantly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said.

Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at property firm OrangeTee Group, said prices are on track to achieve their longest growth streak, with growth in the last quarter of 2024 marking the 19th consecutive quarter of price increase.

“This is the second longest period of price growth, following the 20 consecutive quarters of increases seen from the fourth quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 1996,” she said.

According to HDB data, five-room flats in Bishan were the most expensive in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a median price of $970,000. This was followed by five-room flats in Bukit Merah, which had a median price of $965,000.

There were a record 1,035 million-dollar flat transactions in the whole of 2024.

But the number of such deals fell to 285 in the fourth quarter of 2024, from 331 units in the previous quarter.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at real estate firm Huttons Asia, said the million-dollar flat transactions in 2024 made up about 3.6 per cent of total transactions.

These deals were concentrated in the towns of Bishan, Bukit Merah, Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown and Toa Payoh, with most of the transactions ranging from $1 million to $1.1 million, he added.

HDB said the fourth-quarter 2024 resale prices were driven by a strong broad-based demand and tight market supply.

The loan-to-value limit for HDB loans was lowered from 80 per cent to 75 per cent in August to cool the market and encourage greater prudence among buyers, it added.

HDB advised buyers to be financially prudent in their flat purchases as the property market moves in cycles and “those who buy high will be hit harder if prices weaken”.

“The Government will monitor the property market closely and adjust its policies as necessary to promote a stable and sustainable property market,” it said.

HDB plans to launch about 19,600 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats in 2025, including 3,800 units with waiting times of under three years.

In February, it will offer about 5,000 flats across five BTO projects in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands and Yishun.

More than 5,500 Sale of Balance Flats will also be launched in the largest exercise for these flats to date. About four in 10 balance flats will be those that are already completed, with the remaining flats to be completed progressively from 2025 to 2028.

HDB said it is on track to launch about 102,300 BTO flats from 2021 to 2025, exceeding its 100,000-flat goal for that period.