Oct 5 South Africa (Turffontein/Durbanville) form analysis

Race 1 (1,600m)

(1) THE OCTAGON has made progress in three starts since he was gelded. Can open his account.

(4) CLIFFIE CLAVIN, after an improved fourth over 1,500m, and likely improver (5) OBSIDIAN, who was not disgraced on his 2YO sprint debut, are the only dangers.

(2) BALLARINO has a minor role.

Race 2 (1,000m)

(3) ROSA OSIRIA ran improved races in KZN earlier this term. She can continue her momentum during the Western Cape summer.

(8) MRS SHACKLETON has the form and experience to figure, even if a bigger threat could come from a well-bred newcomer.

(5) CATCH A PENNY and (7) FRIDA KAHLO are all attractively bred and worth a market check on debut.

Race 3 (1,600m)

(3) FETCHING FLYER disappointed when staying on to finish behind (4) QUELLO CHE over track and trip last time. Rider’s 1.5kg claim will help.

The latter has since finished third over this course and distance ahead of (2) MESSALINA and should confirm her superiority.

(6) ANCIENT WISDOM caught the eye when a fast-finishing second on debut over 1,450m.

Race 4 (1,000m)

(2) FENCING CAPTAIN has finished a close-up second in consecutive course-and-distance appearances. (5) KRIM was a beaten short-priced favourite when last seen, but can still make his presence felt after a 15-week layoff.

Both (6) CORK BAY and returning (10) SCOTTISH LINKS showed promise on debut.

(8) BAGATELLE FLASH has the form and experience to show up.

Race 5 (2,000m)

(1) ATARIME won back-to-back 1,600m races after he was gelded. The extended trip ought to unlock further progress.

(3) BATTLEOFBARBERTON was a start-to-finish winner over this distance first-up in September. Watch, especially with Piere Strydom in the irons again.

(4) MOOLA MAN and (7) MASTER TIK TOK are consistent hard-knockers.

Race 6 (1,250m)

(9) SPECIAL GLAMOUR finished ahead of (8) CHAMPAGNE KISSES and should confirm her superiority with that experience to count on.

(3) BEACH QUEEN and (7) OCOTILLO are well-bred fillies (out of Grade 1 winners) worth watching.

Race 7 (2,600m)

(2) RAISEAHALLELUJAH won a similar course-and-distance contest last month, beating (7) EXPLOSIVE BOND and (1) ZEUS. He is 1kg worse off with both re-opposing rivals but is good value.

(5) MAMBO COME TESIO is consistent in a slightly lower grade. Suited at this level.

Race 8 (1,250m)

(8) ZEITZ, (6) SCOTTISH KISS and (3) SIR KORSKI ran encouraging first-up races. Ought to be competitive with natural improvement on the cards.

(1) CUMBRE VIEJA would not be winning out of turn. This shorter trip with blinkers on may be more to his liking.

Race 9 (1,200m)

(1) SALENIO PENINSULA could take the step-up to this class in her stride, en route to bigger and better things.

Debut winner (6) SAY IT LOUD is another with any amount of scope for improvement.

(5) BOSUM BUDDY and (3) MIA MOO showed enough during promising juvenile campaigns to also warrant respect.

Race 10 (1,400m)

(8) WILD APPLAUSE and (5) BERRY’S BOOGIE make more appeal after promising introductions and both should improve with that experience to count on.

(14) TUSCAN ROMANCE should open her account sooner rather than later. However, she is awkwardly drawn in stall No. 14, which does her chances no favours.

(2) DOUBLE DASH is closely matched with that rival on recent form and is favourably positioned in gate 2.

Race 11 (1,450m)

Fellow 5YO mares (2) CELTIC RUMOURS and (1) GIMME A SHOT are consistent performers with solid credentials and should play leading roles.

Grade 12YO winner (11) VJ’S ANGEL is awkwardly drawn but not to be taken lightly.

Consistent (3) CAPTAIN PEG finished second in this race last year from gate off a five-point higher mark. She should again acquit herself competitively.

Race 12 (1,400m)

(2) HANG OUT THE STARS was ridden aggressively from a wide draw when finishing 1½ lengths behind re-opposing last-start winner (3) FLY TO RIO (1.5kg worse off) and could turn the tables on these revised weight terms from a favourable gate 2.

(12) TRES CHIC is in good form and has dropped to an attractive mark in the ratings but she is poorly drawn in her first attempt at this distance.

(5) DREAM SEARCHER finished further adrift but is weighted to get closer.

Race 13 (1,450m)

(1) MAIN DEFENDER was a wide-margin winner of this race last year, beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Thunderstruck by 6½ lengths. He finished second to (6) UNZEN over 1,400m when last seen but is 6.5kg better off for that 1.4-length defeat, so should turn the tables.

(3) WILLIAM ROBERTSON, KZN raider (4) GLADATORIAN and progressive (7) BACK IN BUSINESS have the means to make life difficult for the selection.

Race 14 (1,400m)

(9) ONE LINER and (4) PLEASE BE TRUE renew rivalry with the former 1kg better off having finished 2.75 lengths behind his paternal half-brother over 1,250m in September.

(7) BOUNDLESS ENERGY impressed on his winning 1,250m reappearance. Should improve over this extended trip.

Hard-knocker (2) DAS GUTE is maintaining form and consistency at this level off his current mark and he ought to acquit himself competitively.

Race 15 (1,200m)

(4) BUFFALO STORM CODY was a fast-finishing second in a similar contest over track and trip six weeks ago and needs only repeat that performance to fight for victory.

Debut winners (5) MUSICAL SCORE and (8) BAKWENA could be anything so are not underestimated.

(2) TRUTH won on debut over 1,160m, so has already proven himself effective in a sprint and should not be written off on his seasonal reappearance after unsuccessful attempts at 2YO features over 1,400m and 1,600m.

Race 16 (1,250m)

(4) OMIKAMI could hardly have been more impressive when winning on debut, so it could pay to follow her progress.

The consistent (8) GREAT CAT and (7) DARK WINTER, a stakes-placed 2YO last season, have the form and experience to expose any chinks in the selection’s armour.

(5) JOU LEKKER DING can make her presence felt.

Race 17 (1,000m)

(6) RAINBOW REWARD deserves a reward for his consistency. He has proven most effective over this distance.

(5) KARANGETANG finished behind (7) KINSHIN SHA and (8) SMITH AND WESSON over this distance last month but has slid further down the ratings and will enjoy the benefit of his rider’s 1.5kg weight allowance.

Race 18 (1,600m)

(3) JET TO THE SUN and (5) PENTOLINA improved for the step-up to this trip to register course-and-distance maiden victories. The latter benefited from the fitting of first-time blinkers that day and should have more to offer.

(1) GLEE CLUB and (9) COULDITBE are consistent hard-knockers with the form and experience to give this a shake.

(7) MISS NEW YORK has dropped to a dangerous mark and also has the means to stake a claim.

Race 19 (1,600m)

(1) DUBBELOSIX improved to finish on the heels of game front runner (7) JOUEUR DE FLUTE over 1,400m in September. Both are open to improvement over this extended trip.

The well-related (13) MARINE MERCHANT fared worst of all in the barrier draw but showed enough promise when finishing third on debut over 1,250m to warrant respect, with improvement likely over this distance.

Blinkered again, (3) HAPPY DAYS has claims too.