Saudi Arabia prepares for another extremely hot haj season

The deaths of 1,300 pilgrims during the haj in Saudi Arabia in 2024 underscores an urgent need to mitigate dangers posed by extreme heat, with crowd management an essential first step, analysts said.

Temperatures soared to 51.8 deg C in the holy city of Mecca in June 2024, as 1.8 million worshippers took part in the annual rites, one of the five pillars of Islam.

Saudi officials said 83 per cent of the 1,301 recorded fatalities did not have official haj permits and were therefore unable to access amenities meant to make the haj more bearable, including air-conditioned tents.

It was a high-profile example of the havoc wrought by heat in 2024, which the Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Jan 10 was the hottest year ever recorded.

The vast majority of haj pilgrims come from abroad, and diplomats involved in their countries’ responses to 2024’s crisis told AFP at the time that most deaths were heat-related.

While Riyadh has not detailed preparations for this year’s pilgrimage – still five months away – authorities will no doubt want to avoid a repeat, said Mr Abderrezak Bouchama of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah International Medical Research Centre.

“I think they will above all reduce the risk of illegal pilgrims,” he added. He has worked with the Saudi government for more than three decades on curbing heat deaths.

“I think they’ve learnt their lesson, so we have to see what kind of measures they have taken for that.”

Other steps to make heat less perilous, such as introducing wearable sensors to quickly detect heat stress, are long-term projects that likely will not be rolled out by June, Mr Bouchama noted.

Perfect storm

The haj takes place over five to six days, mostly outdoors. It has seen a number of disasters over the years, including in 2015 when a stampede during the “stoning the devil” ritual in Mina killed up to 2,300 people.

Responses in the past have “typically focused on infrastructure improvements and crowd control measures”, said Mr Karim Elgendy, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank.

“Based on this pattern, we would expect authorities to approach the 2025 haj with enhanced heat mitigation infrastructure and potentially stricter capacity controls.”

Haj permits are allocated to countries on a quota system and distributed to individuals by lottery.

But even for those who can obtain them, the steep costs spur many to attempt the haj without a permit, though they risk arrest and deportation if caught.

The introduction of a general tourism visa in 2019 has made it easier for all foreigners, including permit-less pilgrims, to enter the country.

Sealing off entry points to Mecca is “very difficult”, meaning Saudi authorities should expect irregular pilgrims again this year, said Dr Umer Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham.

Saudi authorities “need to make arrangements not just for registered numbers but also for additional numbers”, particularly cooling and emergency health facilities, he added.

Yet Mr Elgendy stressed that 2024’s deaths were the product of “an unprecedented perfect storm of environmental conditions”, not just a strain on resources caused by unregistered pilgrims.

On top of high temperatures, “the summer solstice timing meant pilgrims faced maximum sun exposure during outdoor rituals”, he said.

The haj’s timing is determined by the Islamic lunar calendar and will move forward about 11 days in the Gregorian calendar, meaning this year it will again fall during the scorching Saudi summer.

Extreme danger

Authorities were pursuing heat-mitigation measures at holy sites long before 2024’s deaths.

Near the Kaaba, the black cubic structure in the Grand Mosque in Mecca towards which all Muslims pray, air-conditioned spaces allow pilgrims to cool off. A climate-controlled pathway connects the hills of Safa and Marwa inside the mosque compound.

Since 2023, roads used by the faithful have been covered in a white cooling material that Saudi officials say reduces the temperature of the asphalt by 20 per cent.

Volunteers distribute water and umbrellas and offer advice to pilgrims on avoiding hyperthermia, while misting systems and air-conditioned shopping malls provide temporary relief between prayers.

“Air-conditioning is the only effective measure to protect against extreme heat,” said Mr Bouchama, calling for mobile cooling units to be deployed among pilgrims.

“Drinking water helps to rehydrate but it is not enough. You have to get out of the heat.”

Even if such steps are not in place by this year’s haj in June, they are still worth pursuing, he added.

While the pilgrimage will eventually shift to the cooler winter season, relief will be temporary.

A 2019 study published by journal Geophysical Research Letters said because of climate change and the timing of the haj, heat stress for pilgrims will exceed the “extreme danger threshold” from 2047 to 2052, and 2079 to 2086. – AFP