It’s a Hard Too Think big race

If you are looking for a gilt-edged race, Sunday's $1 million Group 1 Singapore Gold Cup more than fits the bill.

It is filled with so many genuine chances that it is not a question of which horse to pick as the top choice but which one to drop? You can make a good case for many.

The first half of the capacity 16 runners are all top horses in their own right, with feature-race successes.

Some of the non-Group-winning aspirants are capable of upsetting, with lighter weight on their backs because the race is run on handicapping terms.

Narrowing down the options, can Lim's Lightning live up to his top billing as Singapore's highest-rated galloper to crown his great season with the time-honoured classic?

Can Big Hearted make it two-in-a-row with another light weight?

Can $1 million Group 1 Kranji Mile winner Minister go one better a year on?

Can triple Group 1 hero Top Knight go two better?

Can Hard Too Think achieve a rare hat-trick, after winning the Group 1 Singapore Derby and Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup?

Can five-time unbeaten South African import Katak exact his revenge for his narrow QE II Cup defeat last month?

The list surely got me in a bind.

Last year, I followed my heart and I got it right with Big Hearted. The head told me to go for his classy stablemate, Top Knight, who ran third.

This time, I spent a lot of time tossing the final three names around - Hard Too Think, Katak and Top Knight.

A few months back, I already pledged my allegiance to Hard Too Think. But Katak improved so much in just his third Kranji start to finish only half a length behind him in the QE II Cup.

Trainer Ricardo Le Grange reckons Katak has trained on. This gives his charge every chance to turn the tables on his conqueror.

After all, three of his five home victories were in Group 3 - from 1,600m to 2,400m. His class and stamina are never in doubt. That swayed me.

Then, only on Tuesday morning, Top Knight impressed me so much in his gallop that I thought he would be THE one.

The pride of champion trainer Michael Clements' seven candidates on Sunday, he was third last year as the 57kg toppie. This time, he gets in with 54.5kg.

As you cannot tip them all, I settled for my original pick. The Stephen Gray-trained Hard Too Think is in the form of his life.

The five-year-old was still kicking strongly with 58kg in the weight-for-age QE II Cup.

If Katak, or any other horse, could improve, so could he. In fact, he has shown it on the training track.

Although he picked up nine points (or 4.5kg in handicapping terms), he still gets in the Gold Cup with a handy 52.5kg. This is only 1kg more than Katak.

If he wins, he will be the first to win the Derby, QE II Cup and Gold Cup in the same year.

Better Life won the Gold Cup in 2012 and the Derby-QE II Cup double in 2013. Quechua won the Gold Cup in 2014, Derby in 2015 and QE II Cup in 2017.

As for Lim's Lightning, I respect him for his class.

But, as Kranji's highest-rated galloper, the winner of the Group 1 Lion City Cup and Raffles Cup is paying a price. He has to carry 58kg and has to give weight all round.

Tradition is against the topweight. The race, inaugurated in 1924, favours the lightweights. The last topweight to win was Smart Bet with 59kg in 2002.

Furthermore, Lim's Lightning has never gone beyond 1,600m, but trainer Daniel Meagher believes his champion should handle the extra 400m.